Developing Food Security
How long would we last if there was a major supply chain collapse?
The supermarkets would be stripped in a few days. Within a few weeks, warehouses would be emptied.
After a month of so, when people began to get hungry, culling of the livestock population would begin.
In Ireland we are fortunate in that we are a food producing country. Nevertheless, most foodstocks would be long gone before harvest time the following year. And would there even be a harvest? What would be sown? A high proportion of grain planted in Ireland is grown for animal feed , so we might have to get used to eating barley. But the real problem is the seeds are often imported too, so any supply chain collapse might interfere with seed distrbution too.
Lets assume a few wise people hold stocks of seeds of important varieties of grain and vegetables. But how long would it take to build up stocks to a level that could feed an entire nation? If I have a kilo of wheat - lets assume an old variety not known for high yields but reliable in wet years - it might sow 100 square metres of land and yield twenty five times as much as I start with. So after the first harvest I have 25 kilos and sow 2500 square metres of land (0.25 hectares) the following year.
This time the yield is expected to be 625 kilos but maybe it is a really good year and 1 tonne is harvested. The next year, 10 hectares can be planted.
Year three is very wet and windy and much of the crop is lost. Only the hardiness of the variety prevents a total crop failure. The harvest totals 10 tonnes.
In year four, 100 hectares are sown and with an average summer, the harvest totals 250 tonnes.
In year five 2500 hectares are sown but again the summer is very poor. Some fine weather in mid September saves the last of the crop. The yield is only ten times greater than sown and the total harvest weighs 2500 tonnes.
At a subsistance level of 200g of grain per capita per day, the harvest in year 5 would feed a population of 6 million (total population of the island of Ireland) for about 2 days.
From a standing start, it can be assumed to take around 7 years to build up sufficient grain stocks to feed the Irish population all year round, and even that presumes other food is available, that for the first 6 years all the grain harvest is saved for re-sowing the following year, and that the means to plant, tend, harvest and successfully store the crop are available.
What if we don't have 7 years? Or there is no fuel for tractors? Or a wheat fungus from Asia wipes out all our grain stocks?
This may be regarded as an extreme example but nevertheless, Ireland is very vulnerable supply chain disruption, fossil fuel depletion, and climate change induced crop failures both here and abroad. Also, the situation can only get worse as world population continues to rise and ever increasing areas of agricultural land in major producer countries are degraded by unsustainable farming practices.
It is important the inevitabality of a food crisis is acknowledged, and contingency plans made to deal with it
Solutions
One of the most important steps which can be taken to improve future food security is for local communities to become involved in the food production process. During the chaos of post Soviet Russia, when large scale food production and distribution almost completely broke down, small kitchen gardens and allotments helped keep people stayed alive.
Ireland is fortunate in that is has a relatively low population in relation to the area of agricultural land. Perhaps more importantly however, the collective memory of producing food has not yet faded and few people are more than two generations removed from working the land. This knowledge is a great resource.
Key strategic areas include the following:
Revitalising skills
Setting Up Land Cooperatives (see below)
Developing training at local and community level
Building local seed banks and preservation of genetic stock of heritage varieties
Instigation of breeding and research programmes aimed at developing resilience to supply chain collapse, climate change, and fossil fuel depletion (an example of this would be research into maintaining soil fertility levels in the absence of imported fertilizers)
Awareness and education campaigns aimed at encouraging the use of locally produced, unprocessed food
A review of all livestock farming with a view to meeting local demand and minimising reliance on export markets
Trialling nut trees and increasing stock of viable nut cultivars
More information will be posted in the near future.
